A bold white arrow symbolizes the fluctuations of inflation over time, with its upward trajectory at the end. The recent months have witnessed a calming inflation rate, leading to a decline in mortgage rates during the holiday season. Although consumer prices still exceed the typical 2% inflation rate, November recorded the lowest level of 7.1% in 2022. The deceleration of inflation is the primary factor behind the projected mortgage rate of 5.5% by the second half of 2023. If the deceleration accelerates beyond expectations, there is a possibility of mortgage rates falling within the 4% range, which would attract buyers back to the market. bargainhousenetwork.com
One significant factor that could contribute to the ongoing decline in inflation is the rent paid by individuals and the equivalent rent that property owners would have paid. These measures continue to rise at an accelerating pace, with annual gains of 7.9% and 7.1% respectively, marking their highest increase since the early 1980s. These substantial gains can be attributed to the housing shortage and historically low rental vacancy rates. However, recent data suggests that the housing shortage may not be as severe as previously believed. The rental vacancy rate increased to 6% in the third quarter of 2022, up from 5.8% the previous year, and overall sale inventory has risen by 2.7% in December. Data on new lease rates from apartment property managers also indicate a noticeable slowdown in growth.
Furthermore, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has actively supported the conversion of vacant commercial spaces, such as empty shopping malls or office buildings, into residential units. This can be achieved through the provision of funding and/or tax credit incentives. Additionally, financial incentives aimed at rehabilitating dilapidated and abandoned homes in major cities will contribute to increasing housing supply and enhancing neighborhood safety.
Regarding the economy, there is a possibility of a recession, although it is not certain. The GDP is currently experiencing a decline, hovering around the near-zero growth line. However, one positive aspect is the strong job creation. Despite layoffs occurring in certain industries, the overall number of job openings still surpasses the number of unemployed individuals by a ratio of 7-to-1. It is estimated that net job creation will range from 1 million to 2 million this year. These newly employed individuals are potential future homeowners.
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